[Ford tries to piece together what those two statements have to do with one another, but....no, no he doesn't get how the second might explain the first. Bill thinks he's been overconfident? That he's just been doing what he wants, convinced it will work out, but that's been a mistake...? He wanted to keep the game going no matter what, and that's why he.....?]

So, you've realized you've been overconfident. But that can't be the only thing you came here to talk about. What are you really trying to say?

[Don't make him read between the lines here, he doesn't want to have to guess. Spell it out.]